The Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) has been publishing frequent updates on mortality in the general population during the pandemic. This blog focuses on mortality in the general population in the first three quarters of 2022.
To consider the impact of the pandemic on mortality, the CMI calculates age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs, which remove the impact of changes in the population to provide a fairer comparison between years) and compares these to the corresponding period in 2019, the last full year before the pandemic had an impact on mortality.
Mortality for the general population of England and Wales in 2020 was 13% higher, and mortality in 2021 was 7% higher, than in 2019.
So far, mortality in 2022 has been nearly 4% higher than in 2019, but it has varied significantly by quarter. The year started well, with mortality in the first quarter of 2022 being 1% lower than in the first quarter of 2019. However, mortality in the second quarter was 5% higher than in 2019, and mortality in the third quarter was 9% higher than in 2019.
It is unusual to see such a high level of mortality in the third quarter, as mortality tends to be more variable in the winter, when it is affected by influenza and cold weather, and less variable in the summer when conditions are generally more stable. The third quarter of 2022 saw higher mortality than any third quarter since 2010.
Deaths with COVID on the death certificate explain nearly 60% of the difference in deaths between the third quarters of 2019 and 2022, but there were also more deaths than expected from non-COVID causes. This contrasts with the first half of the year, and most of the pandemic period, when non-COVID deaths were lower than expected.
Cause of death data from the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities (OHID) suggests that increased deaths from heart and circulatory diseases contributed to the high level of mortality seen in the third quarter, but deaths from cancer were similar to pre-pandemic levels. We also saw heatwaves leading to short-term increases in deaths, although analysis by the ONS and UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) shows that their impact was not the primary cause of excess mortality over the quarter as a whole.
Mortality for the remainder of the year is uncertain, but if mortality in the fourth quarter is around 9% higher than in 2019, as it was in the third quarter, then mortality for 2022 as a whole could be close to the level seen in 2021. However, if mortality in the fourth quarter is similar to 2019, then mortality for 2022 would be 2% to 3% lower than in 2021.
The CMI will continue monitoring mortality during the remaining part of 2022 to inform the choice of method and for the next version of the CMI Mortality Projections Model, CMI_2022, including the weight for 2022 data. We intend to publish our plans for CMI_2022 by the end of 2022.
